Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1181

   Mesoscale Discussion 1181
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0831 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

   Areas affected...portions of the Northeast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 181331Z - 181530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms to shift eastward with potential for
   damaging wind and perhaps a tornado.

   DISCUSSION...Low topped convection will continue eastward this
   morning across portions of the Northeast. Strong southerly flow is
   ushering in higher dew points ahead of this line. Though cloud cover
   is prominent, further destabilization is expected to occur through
   filtered heating into the early afternoon with MLCAPE around 1000
   J/kg progged by the afternoon. Given the strong mid-level flow and
   low-level jet, damaging wind potential will likely increase into the
   afternoon. Given strong low-level shear profiles, a couple of
   tornadoes are also possible. A watch will be needed soon to cover
   this potential.

   ..Thornton/Hart.. 06/18/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...
   PBZ...

   LAT...LON   43017777 41647945 41407616 41587391 42387246 44077204
               44817237 44887508 43017777 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH