Mesoscale Discussion 0844 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0901 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026 Areas affected...the Panhandle into the South Plains of Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242... Valid 240201Z - 240300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242 continues. SUMMARY...Severe wind gust potential is expected to become more sporadic with time through 04z (11 PM CDT). DISCUSSION...As of 0145 UTC, mosaic radar data sampled a bowing line of storms moving through the north-central and central TX Panhandle with an east to southeast system motion of 35 to 40 kt. The convective system has reached a mature state, featuring a trailing stratiform region and associated 35-40 kt rear-inflow jet, per KAMA VWP. The system cold pool has recently begun to surge ahead of the parent updrafts, at least in the Amarillo vicinity, with echo-top trends decreasing with time, suggesting that the parent updrafts are being to assume an increasing upshear tilt. A recent wind gust to 75 mph was observed just north of Amarillo, but otherwise, gusts have generally been in the 45-55 mph range. Latest surface observations and objective analysis indicate the MCS moving into an increasingly moist boundary layer, which will offset gradual cooling to some extent, with MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg. However, convective inhibition will continue to increase, which coupled with a growing cold pool-shear imbalance, is expected to result in severe wind gusts becoming more sporadic with time through 04z as the MCS moves into the eastern TX Panhandle. In the TX South Plains, storms have merged into clusters and line segments west and northwest of Lubbock. Based on radar trends, there is some potential for the southern portion of the TX Panhandle MCS to merge with this separate regime in the southern TX Panhandle or the northern part of the South Plains in the next hour or two. Locally strong to severe wind gusts will be possible as that process occurs, along with isolated occurrences of severe hail. ..Mead.. 05/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33680306 35620303 35620214 36520212 36510056 33350046 33350308 33680306 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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