Mesoscale Discussion 0784 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Areas affected...portions of Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...and southwest Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229... Valid 190701Z - 190900Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind and large hail will remain possible across portions of Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri this morning. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue this morning across portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #229. The environment along and ahead of these storms remains very unstable with MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg. However, despite a very strong low-level jet across the watch area (in excess of 60 knots per KTLX and KINX radars), the overall large-scale forcing is lifting north, away from the area. This is reflected in the objectively analyzed effective shear calculations, which decrease to less than 30 knots across central and southern Oklahoma. The character of this environment is reflected in regional radar imagery. Namely, thunderstorms across the area are mostly anafrontal in nature, either forming north of, or along and rapidly transitioning to north of, a slowly southeast moving composite cold front/outflow boundary. As long as storms remain north of this effective cold front/outflow boundary, the damaging wind potential will be less than if the storms were along or ahead of the boundary (although not completely zero given the strength of the low-level flow). One area where thunderstorms are closer to the composite cold front/outflow boundary is across eastern Kay and much of Osage counties in north-central Oklahoma, where the greatest potential of severe thunderstorm winds occurring is found. Elsewhere, despite the post-frontal nature of the thunderstorms, strong elevated instability remains in place across Oklahoma, thanks in part to steep midlevel lapse rates. Thus, isolated large hail will remain possible with the strongest thunderstorm cores. ..Marsh.. 05/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 35309997 36649779 37339640 38029502 38239372 37999311 37469287 36899307 35409716 35169803 35009891 35039983 35309997 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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