Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 614

   Mesoscale Discussion 0614
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1125 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

   Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas and Northwest Mississippi

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 179...

   Valid 290425Z - 290630Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 179 continues.

   SUMMARY...New thunderstorm development over southeast Arkansas will
   pose a severe hail threat.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed over the last 45 min over
   southeast AR, along a pre-frontal boundary.  These storms are in a
   very moist and moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE value around
   1000 J/kg.  Storms have intensified rapidly with MESH values
   suggesting severe hail is already occurring.  VADs at LZK/NQA and
   model guidance show substantial veering of low-level winds has
   occurred in this area, suggesting hail is the main concern as these
   storms track eastward into WW179 during the next couple of hours. 
   Nevertheless, sufficient low-level shear remains for at least the
   risk of an isolated tornado.

   ..Hart.. 04/29/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34059240 34519134 34549019 33968986 33129060 33099144
               33259205 33609241 34059240 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN