Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 612

   Mesoscale Discussion 0612
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0924 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

   Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas...northern Mississippi...and far
   southwest Tennessee

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 173...177...

   Valid 290224Z - 290430Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 173, 177 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will continue to migrate across a
   favorably sheared environment through the early morning hours. The
   threat for severe winds, hail, and tornadoes will likely persist and
   necessitate new watch issuance and/or local temporal extensions.

   DISCUSSION...Regional velocity data continues to show mid-level
   mesocyclones with a pair of supercells across southeast AR as well
   as weaker circulations within a mix of convective clusters and weak
   supercells across far eastern AR, northern MS, and far southwest TN.
   Latest mesoanalyses trends show overall buoyancy decreasing from
   east to west due to the onset of nocturnal cooling. However,
   dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s along and near the MS River will
   likely modulate nocturnal stabilization and maintain sufficient
   MLCAPE to sustain ongoing surface-based convection. Additionally,
   regional VWPs and RAP mesoanalysis estimates depict effective SRH on
   the order of 200-400 m2/s2, which will help maintain some tornado
   threat. Given these trends, the expectation is that some severe risk
   will persist into the early morning hours and will require either
   local extensions in time of ongoing watches and/or new watch
   issuance within the hour.

   ..Moore.. 04/29/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   32999134 33569098 35029040 35219010 35248953 35038908
               34798892 34438880 33758888 33438902 33038919 32738952
               32598981 32589023 32609063 32689087 32829124 32999134 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN