Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 415

   Mesoscale Discussion 0415
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0946 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

   Areas affected...Central Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 105...

   Valid 140246Z - 140415Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 105 continues.

   SUMMARY...Occasional wind damage and large hail threat may persist
   until 05-06z across central Missouri, but the tornado threat is
   slowly diminishing and a new downstream watch appears unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...The earlier supercells have undergone cell interactions
   and modest upscale growth into a cluster with a more expansive cold
   pool/outflow.  A discrete supercell persists to the south in Henry
   Co. MO, though this storm should be slowly absorbed into the
   southeast flank of the cluster.  Thus, the more probable outcome
   will be for gradual mergers and development atop the cold pool to
   allow a storm cluster to persist for another few hours while
   spreading eastward into central MO.  Occasional damaging winds of
   60-70 mph and large hail around 1 inch in diameter will be the
   primary threats, though an isolated/brief tornado will still be
   possible with embedded circulations along the leading edge of the
   cold pool, and as the remnant supercell interacts with the cold
   pool.

   ..Thompson.. 04/14/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   38429263 38359370 38579399 39099398 39279369 39419284
               39299241 38859235 38429263 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN