Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 408

   Mesoscale Discussion 0408
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0602 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

   Areas affected...South-central Minnesota

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 103...

   Valid 132302Z - 140030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 103 continues.

   SUMMARY...With several discrete storms near the warm front, areas of
   south-central Minnesota will see an increase in tornado and
   very-large hail potential this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have maintained a discrete mode in southern
   Minnesota late this afternoon. This environment has steeper
   mid-level lapse rates than farther east and is more closely tied to
   a subtle shortwave trough in water vapor imagery. Given the expected
   increase in low-level shear this evening, this area will become more
   favorable for tornadoes and very-large hail over the next 2-3 hours
   so long as a discrete storm mode can be maintained. Current VAD
   observations from KFSD and KARX already show large low-level
   hodographs that should improve over time.

   ..Wendt.. 04/13/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   43729487 43959497 44179508 44329482 44589379 44559315
               44329283 43899307 43739370 43729487 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN