Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 343

   Mesoscale Discussion 0343
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0315 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of southeast IN/far northern KY into
   OH...western/central PA...northern WV Panhandle...southwest NY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 032015Z - 032215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms are possible into early
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Showers and a few thunderstorms have recently developed
   within a broad pre-frontal corridor from parts of IN/OH into
   northwest PA/southwest NY. Within this corridor, MLCAPE increases
   from around 500 J/kg across western PA/southwest NY, to the
   1000-1500 J/kg range farther southwest into IN and western OH, where
   stronger heating has occurred. Effective shear of 25-35 kt will be
   sufficient for some storm organization, though with only modest
   frontal convergence and large-scale ascent, coverage of robust
   updrafts may tend to remain isolated. 

   Steepened low-level lapse rates and moderate southwesterly flow in
   the 1-3 km AGL layer will support potential for locally
   gusty/damaging winds with the strongest storms. If any organized
   multicells or a marginal supercell can evolve with time, then some
   threat for isolated hail could also develop.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 04/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...
   IWX...IND...

   LAT...LON   38498499 38688655 39438648 40438468 41418099 41827994
               42417858 42457778 42147742 41377759 40877863 40078042
               39188316 38498499 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN