Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 338

   Mesoscale Discussion 0338
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0539 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

   Areas affected...east-central MO into central IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 022239Z - 030045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe potential will increase/persist into the evening
   downstream from WW 89 from east-central Missouri into central
   Illinois. Timing and coverage of storm activity remains uncertain.
   Trends being monitored for possible watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...A few storms have developed and weakened north of I-70
   across east-central MO over the past hour. This activity is
   developing near the surface wind shift/dryline as a dryslot aloft
   overspreads the region. This is likely suppressing further
   development/intensification at this time. However, CAMs and WoFS
   guidance suggest more robust development should occur by 00z near
   the MS River and into central IL. This airmass has largely recovered
   from earlier day showers and thunderstorms where clearing has
   occurred this afternoon. Temperatures have rebounded into the low to
   mid 70s and dewpoints remain in the 60-64 F range, resulting in a
   corridor of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear magnitudes near 40
   kt are noted with stronger, backed low-level winds evident in
   surface observations across IL, supporting supercell wind profiles. 

   If isolated to scattered storm development can occur and become
   sustained across this area, damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two
   will be possible. Timing and convective evolution remains uncertain
   and trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance sometime in
   the next few hours.

   ..Leitman/Smith.. 04/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   39309157 40848878 40848845 40688819 40148806 39028857
               38548923 38199005 38109067 38219124 38499175 39309157 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN