Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 326

   Mesoscale Discussion 0326
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0742 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Kansas into central Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 87...

   Valid 020042Z - 020245Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 87 continues.

   SUMMARY...At least some increase in tornado risk appears possible
   over the next 1-2 hours along and south of a surface warm front.

   DISCUSSION...While nocturnal low-level cooling and weak low-level
   lapse rates may be tempering overall strengthening, recent
   convective development has shown some signs of modest
   intensification across portions of western Missouri during the past
   30-60 minutes. Per latest mesoanalysis, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and
   around 35-40 kts of effective bulk shear should continue to support
   further strengthening of developing discrete/semi-discrete
   supercells over the next couple of hours. A corridor of enhanced
   tornado potential appears possible near and south of a surface warm
   front across portions of western/central Missouri where backed
   surface flow, 50-100 m2/s2 0-500 m SRH, and mid-60s F dewpoints are
   noted via latest mesoanalysis and surface observations. 

   Some uncertainty remains regarding convective evolution given
   limited strengthening observed thus far and the potential for storms
   to move north of the surface boundary due to deep-layer flow
   orientation. Should a supercell or two become better established,
   however, at least some increase in tornado potential, along with a
   threat for large hail and severe wind gusts, appears possible over
   the next 1-2 hours, especially as the nocturnal low-level jet
   continues to strengthen.

   ..Chalmers.. 04/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   37789422 38019450 38399446 38609427 38729394 38709345
               38589286 38449218 38279188 38119181 37769200 37609242
               37579307 37789422 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN