Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 302

   Mesoscale Discussion 0302
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0135 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

   Areas affected...north-central Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 310635Z - 310800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated large hail threat will continue this morning.

   DISCUSSION...Several elevated supercells have developed this morning
   north of a warm front across north-central Michigan. These storms
   are being fueled by around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE within a zone of
   moderate deep-layer shear. In addition, strong isentropic ascent is
   giving additional support despite the only modest instability. A
   broad zone of 60 to 65 knot low-level jet around 1km (as sampled by
   LOT/MKX/IWX/DTX VWPs) is supporting the storms north of the front.
   As the low-level jet continues to weaken/veer through the overnight
   hours, expect these storms to become less intense. 

   1 and 1.5 inch hail reports have been received thus far and expect
   some isolated threat to remain for a bit longer. However, by 9-10Z,
   expect any threat to mostly wane.

   ..Bentley/Mosier.. 03/31/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   44578624 44618548 44398379 44238311 43998300 43718337
               43608488 43838628 44068656 44578624 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN