Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 281

   Mesoscale Discussion 0281
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0804 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

   Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic including Washington
   D.C.

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71...

   Valid 170104Z - 170300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe squall line will continue to push east/northeast
   across parts of the Mid-Atlantic over the next few hours and pose a
   risk for wind damage.

   DISCUSSION...Radar trends over the past hour have shown a gradual
   uptick in reflectivity and VIL values as a shallow convective line
   continues to push into a plume of returning moisture (low 60s
   dewpoints). The 00z RAOB from IAD sampled 372 J/kg SBCAPE, which
   while modest, is sufficient for severe convection given ample ascent
   ahead of the ejecting upper wave and very strong flow just above the
   surface (50 knot flow within the lowest kilometer). Numerous
   instances of wind damage have been reported along the line over the
   past 1-2 hours, as well as observed gusts between 45-55 mph
   (including a 66 mph gust at Dulles/KIAD). This trend is expected to
   continue as the line pushes east over the next few hours into a
   similar thermodynamic and kinematic environment as sampled at IAD.
   Based on latest storm track estimates, this line should approach the
   Chesapeake Bay by around 02 UTC and may reach western Delaware by
   around 03 UTC.

   ..Moore.. 03/17/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   36927592 36717639 36597674 36597702 36657718 36777726
               37197720 37727727 38257740 38607741 38897729 39147700
               39617569 39317528 38697498 38267507 37797531 37307565
               36927592 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH