Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 278

   Mesoscale Discussion 0278
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0219 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

   Areas affected...portions of northeastern South Carolina into
   central and eastern North Carolina.

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 69...

   Valid 161919Z - 162115Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 69 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes continues across
   WW69.

   DISCUSSION...As of 1915 UTC, strong thunderstorms were ongoing
   within a loosely organized convective band from east-central NC to
   coastal SC. Thus far, numerous storm interactions and weak buoyancy
   (~500 J/kg MLCAPE 18z MHX Sounding) have limited storm organization.
   Numerous, but transient, low-level mesocyclones have been observed
   with embedded convective element this afternoon. Kinematics remain
   quite strong with 0-1 km shear of 40+ kts. This will continue to
   pose a risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes with any stronger
   mesocyclones able to become established.

   Some clearing as been noted to the west of the primary cluster over
   central NC. As large-scale ascent from the upper trough moves
   overhead this afternoon, additional storm development is possible
   ahead of the cold front. Storm mode is likely to remain mixed/messy
   with clusters and line segments. Still, the very strong low-level
   wind fields will support a continued risk for damaging gusts and
   tornadoes across WW69 this afternoon.

   ..Lyons.. 03/16/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   33597958 35527822 36557751 36607597 36327548 35807529
               35427531 34987570 34637633 34157739 33897775 33677806
               33317878 33207896 33147922 33207941 33597958 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN