Mesoscale Discussion 0275
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Areas affected...portions of southern and central Florida
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 161758Z - 161900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms have developed, and will likely
increase in coverage over parts of southern and central FL this
afternoon. The severe risk with this initial round is uncertain,
though sufficient buoyancy exist for isolated damaging gusts and
hail.
DISCUSSION...As of 1745 UTC, regional radar and satellite
observations showed intensifying thunderstorms along a pre-frontal
confluence axis across central FL, and along the sea breeze front in
the eastern peninsula. Ahead of the QLCS associated with the
upstream cold front, these storms have begun to mature, within a
warm and unstable air mass (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Strong updrafts
are present and likely to continue. However, vertical shear is
modest currently, with much of central and southern FL displaced
from the stronger mid-level flow to the northwest. Thus, these
initial storms have shown little in the way of organization so far.
Isolated hail will be possible given the degree of buoyancy.
Isolated damaging gusts are also possible, especially with storms
that cluster and can develop stronger cold pools.
The QLCS upstream will likely continue across the eastern Gulf and
move onto the peninsula later this afternoon into the evening. Some
severe potential may persist with that. However, as large-scale
ascent shifts away to the north, the QLCS may weaken overnight.
Thus, some severe potential is apparent this afternoon, and later
this evening, but confidence in either scenario necessitating a
watch is low. Conditions will continue to be monitored.
..Lyons/Thompson.. 03/16/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...
LAT...LON 25398088 27248218 28658189 28998154 29228125 29068083
28488047 27918035 27448016 26778000 26268001 25858003
25308019 25148036 25398088
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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