Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 257

   Mesoscale Discussion 0257
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1015 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

   Areas affected...Eastern Indiana...western Ohio...northern Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 160315Z - 160415Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...New watch will likely be issued from eastern
   Indiana/western Ohio into northern Kentucky.

   DISCUSSION...Strongly forced QLCS is advancing steadily east across
   IN/western KY in response to a progressive short-wave trough that is
   approaching this region. Boundary-layer moisture is a bit scant
   downstream of this squall line with surface dew points struggling to
   rise through the upper 40s to near 50F. Additionally, forecast
   soundings suggest a warm layer near 3km is likely suppressing
   pre-frontal convection well ahead of the squall line. With time,
   cooling/moistening profiles will remove this warm layer and weak
   buoyancy will develop just prior to the frontal passage. This should
   prove adequate for the maintenance and eastward propagation of this
   linear MCS. While a tornado or two can not be ruled out due to very
   strong shear, storm mode and weak buoyancy suggest damaging winds
   are the primary concern.

   ..Darrow/Smith.. 03/16/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

   LAT...LON   37998449 40028541 40408409 38238336 37998449 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH