Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 252

   Mesoscale Discussion 0252
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0707 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

   Areas affected...Central/Southern Indiana into south central
   Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 160007Z - 160100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...New Tornado Watch will likely be issued by 01z from
   portions of central Indiana, south into south central Kentucky.

   DISCUSSION...Strongly forced squall line, with embedded bows and
   circulations, is propagating steadily east toward western Indiana.
   This LEWP appears to have increased its eastward movement to around
   35-40kt, and should exit the current watch into west central Indiana
   by 01z. In advance of the squall line, a roughly 50mi wide band of
   weak elevated convection has evolved across southeast Illinois into
   western Indiana. This activity has struggled to attain intensity,
   but is likely a reflection of the adjusting lapse rates in response
   to the strong large-scale ascent that is spreading into this region.
   New Tornado watch will be issued by 01z.

   ..Darrow/Smith.. 03/16/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

   LAT...LON   36978684 40108724 39858508 37038492 36978684 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH