Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 251

   Mesoscale Discussion 0251
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0643 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

   Areas affected...eastern Arkansas...western Kentucky...western
   Tennessee...northern Mississippi

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 55...

   Valid 152343Z - 160145Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 55 continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes
   continues within and downstream of WW53 into WW55.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms with embedded supercell
   structures continues eastward through eastern AR and into northern
   LA. Within the embedded supercells, occasional mesovorticies have
   been observed in radar. This line continues to move into a favorably
   unstable and strongly sheared environment across northern
   Mississippi and western Tennessee. A few semi-discrete supercells
   have developed ahead of the main line of storms moving
   north-northeast. Any discrete cell ahead of the front will pose an
   increased hail and tornado risk. 

   The VAD profile from KNQA (Memphis, TN) shows steadily increasing
   low-level shear profiles with the strengthening low-level jet. RAP
   forecasts indicate the LLJ will continue to increase, particularly
   across northern MS into TN (around 50 kts) over the next few hours.
   The threat for damaging winds will continue with potential for an
   increase in the tornado threat as low-level shear continues to
   increase as low-level hodographs enlarge.

   ..Thornton.. 03/15/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32749288 33669283 34609170 35879104 37079033 37558951
               37338829 36748767 36438771 36308785 35618809 34758868
               33578967 33059097 32739279 32749288 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN