Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 245

   Mesoscale Discussion 0245
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0118 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

   Areas affected...Southern and central Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151818Z - 152015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms may pose an isolated
   severe risk for occasional damaging gusts and hail through the
   afternoon. Organization appears limited and a WW is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...As of 1915 UTC, regional radar analysis showed
   scattered to numerous thunderstorms had developed across portions of
   southern FL, with additional storms developing along the typical sea
   breeze boundaries. Strong heating amid seasonably rich low-level
   moisture (dewpoints in the 70s F) is contributing to roughly 2000
   J/kg of MLCAPE. However, flow aloft is rather modest, with
   deep-layer shear on area VADs generally below 25 kt. Thus far, storm
   organization potential appears limited with a multicell mode. Still,
   transient stronger updrafts are possible given the degree of
   buoyancy. This, along with some clustering has been noted in radar
   trends, suggesting some stronger downdrafts and isolated damaging
   gust potential. While isolated damaging gusts or marginally severe
   hail are possible, the limited storm organization suggests the
   severe threat will remain localized. A WW is unlikely this
   afternoon.

   ..Lyons/Gleason.. 03/15/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   25128090 26358208 27538272 28428278 28888243 29138178
               29048102 28678044 27798021 27097996 26078001 25648014
               25358036 25128090 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN