Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 233

   Mesoscale Discussion 0233
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1132 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

   Areas affected...southern/eastern NC

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 51...

   Valid 121632Z - 121830Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 51
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for sporadic strong to locally severe gusts, with
   low-probability brief tornado potential, should persist into
   mid-afternoon as lower-topped storms shift east-northeast across
   southern/eastern North Carolina.

   DISCUSSION...Lower-topped convection is ongoing from far eastern SC
   through the Raleigh metro area. Northern activity will continue to
   be undercut by the surface cold front pushing southeast from the
   Piedmont to Coastal Plain. More persistent strong to locally severe
   gust potential should occur with the southern portion near the NC/SC
   coastal border area. Favorably timed thinning of downstream cloud
   coverage will aid in boosting boundary-layer instability/depth as
   temperatures further warm from 75-80 F, outside of the immediate
   coast. With veered and nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind
   profiles curtailing hodograph curvature, damaging winds will likely
   remain the primary hazard across southern NC through the Pamlico
   Sound vicinity.

   ..Grams.. 03/12/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   34177920 34737922 35077884 35657827 35907779 35917680
               35677620 35187616 34947631 34787652 34417740 33797807
               33597890 33607928 34177920 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH