Mesoscale Discussion 0229 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026 Areas affected...Parts of the FL Panhandle...southeast/east-central AL...western/central GA Concerning...Tornado Watch 49... Valid 120826Z - 121000Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 49 continues. SUMMARY...Some increase in wind-damage and embedded tornado potential is possible through the early morning. DISCUSSION...At 0825 UTC, a long-lived QLCS remains relatively vigorous from southeast AL into west-central GA. Recent observed wind gusts have generally been subsevere, though mesovortices have been noted along the line from the KMXX and KEOX radars, with some evidence of embedded supercell structures. Midlevel lapse rates are relatively weak (as sampled by the 06Z FFC sounding), but rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE of generally 500-1000 J/kg (greater with southwest extent). A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough will continue to support widespread convection through the early morning as it moves quickly eastward across the Southeast. Strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection, and a notable increase in low-level flow has recently been observed from the KEOX VWP. While the wind profile is relatively unidirectional, rather strong observed surface pressure falls (2-3 mb/2 hours) may allow for some backing of winds in advance of the line. Even where surface winds remain veered, low-level shear/SRH will remain sufficient for some tornado potential, especially with any embedded supercells. Otherwise, damaging-wind potential may increase with time along the line, in conjunction with the strengthening low-level flow. ..Dean.. 03/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 30188585 30298663 30258688 30318698 31488595 32598530 33428482 33708463 33918401 33958291 31868416 30178531 30188585 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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