Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 228

   Mesoscale Discussion 0228
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1157 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

   Areas affected...parts of southwestern through east central Alabama
   and adjacent portions of Georgia...the western Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 48...49...

   Valid 120457Z - 120700Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 48, 49 continues.

   SUMMARY...An organized line of storms will overspread the region
   through 2-4 AM EDT, with some further increase in potential for
   tornadoes still possible.

   DISCUSSION...Although there has been a general warming of colder
   cloud tops associated with the convective system, a few embedded
   supercell structures persist, with occasional strengthening
   mesovortices along the eastward progressing convective outflow. 
   Boundary-layer cooling with the loss of daytime heating has slowed
   in advance of the line, and low-level moistening continues in a
   narrow corridor across southwestern into central Alabama, including
   surface dew points increasing through the upper 60s to near 70F
   across and northeast of Selma.  Likely in association with a broader
   weak migrating surface wave, the latest Rapid Refresh forecasts
   further strengthening of flow around 850 mb in excess of 40 kt
   across southern/eastern Alabama through 06-08Z.  Given continuing
   inflow of air characterized by at least weak CAPE, additional
   enlargement of clockwise curved low-level hodographs could still
   support increasing potential for tornadoes during the next few
   hours.

   ..Kerr.. 03/12/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   32958486 32638465 31848557 30458697 30278781 30338876
               31698764 33128627 32958486 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH