Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 226

   Mesoscale Discussion 0226
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0939 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

   Areas affected...parts of southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi and
   southwestern Alabama

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 48...

   Valid 120239Z - 120445Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 48 continues.

   SUMMARY...Occasional brief tornadoes and locally damaging wind gusts
   will remain possible with a cluster of storms overspreading the
   region through midnight-2 AM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...The organized convective system, with at least a couple
   of embedded meso beta scale lower/mid-tropospheric cyclonic
   circulations and occasionally intensifying meso gamma scale cyclonic
   circulations closer to the surface, is generally being maintained. 
   This is likely being supported by inflow of boundary-layer based
   CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg, within a narrow corridor of better
   low-level moisture return roughly aligned with a 30-35 kt
   southwesterly 850 mb jet nosing inland of the Gulf coast.   

   It appears that this corridor of destabilization and enlarged
   low-level hodographs will persist and develop east-northeastward
   across southeastern Mississippi through southwestern Alabama into
   the 05-07Z time frame, with the eastward progression of the
   mid-level short wave across Louisiana.  As long as this continues,
   occasional brief tornadoes and locally damaging wind gusts will
   remain possible.

   ..Kerr.. 03/12/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   31048942 31798881 32418644 30388840 29389041 29749105
               30478989 31048942 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN