Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 223

   Mesoscale Discussion 0223
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0431 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

   Areas affected...Southeastern Kentucky into Eastern Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 112131Z - 112330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe thunderstorms will be possible
   across portions of southeastern Kentucky into eastern Tennessee.
   Severe thunderstorm watch issuance is possible downstream of WW 46.

   DISCUSSION...Loosely organized clusters of thunderstorms across
   portions of eastern Kentucky and Tennessee are expected to persist a
   while longer into the evening, despite relatively meager MUCAPE
   evident in current SPC mesoanalysis data. Well-mixed boundary layer
   profiles and strong deep-layer vertical shear will support a threat
   for damaging straight-line winds -- particularly with any bowing
   segments or strong thunderstorm outflows. Given the decreasing
   buoyancy with eastward extent, expectation is that convective
   activity should begin to diminish later in the evening, but will
   pose a severe threat for at least the next few hours.

   ..Halbert/Smith.. 03/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...

   LAT...LON   35328545 36608474 36968445 37098381 37008340 36678318
               36078338 35618386 35188430 34988478 35038561 35168555
               35328545 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN