Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 215

   Mesoscale Discussion 0215
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1040 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

   Areas affected...Middle Ohio Valley Vicinity

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 41...42...

   Valid 111540Z - 111745Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 41, 42 continues.

   SUMMARY...Areas near the middle Ohio Valley may see an additional
   round of strong to severe storms as surface heating occurs in the
   wake of earlier activity. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or
   two would be possible. Local extensions of WW 41 or potentially a
   new watch may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Boundary layer heating is evident within parts of the
   middle Ohio Valley region in the wake of morning convection. A few
   updrafts within southern Indiana have shown some modest increase in
   intensity along with marginally supercellular characteristics
   (modest rotation per regional 88D velocity data). With time,
   continued heating of a moist airmass (low/mid 60s F dewpoints) will
   lead to an increase in buoyancy by this afternoon. Gradual mid-level
   height falls may allow for at least semi-discrete activity near the
   Ohio Valley where confidence in surface heating is greatest at this
   time. Damaging winds will be possible. The hail threat will
   primarily depend on how discrete activity remains, though poor
   mid-level lapse rates will tend to mitigate this risk. The tornado
   threat is also somewhat unclear given how veered surface flow has
   become. Even so, an increase in 850 mb winds are expected this
   afternoon leading to enough low-level shear/SRH for a tornado risk
   with discrete storms. This region will continue to be monitored for
   potential local extensions of WW 41 (nominally scheduled to expire
   at noon EDT) or potentially a new watch may be needed.

   ..Wendt/Gleason.. 03/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

   LAT...LON   38498628 39368456 39908284 39758245 39288238 38578251
               38328261 38288274 38178404 38048527 38228609 38498628 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN