Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 214

   Mesoscale Discussion 0214
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1015 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

   Areas affected...southeast TX to middle TN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 111515Z - 111745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...An increasing severe threat is expected into this
   afternoon. Multiple tornado watches will likely be needed towards
   midday/early afternoon from the northwest Gulf Coast to the
   Tennessee Valley.

   DISCUSSION...An extensive swath of broken convection is ongoing from
   parts of southeast TX into the Ark-La-Miss/Mid-South vicinity. Cloud
   breaks ahead of this activity are aiding in gradual airmass
   destabilization from MS southwestward, where moderate MLCAPE from
   1000-2000 J/kg should become pervasive over the next few hours. 

   Most prominent severe threat is anticipated to emanate out of the
   southeast TX vicinity, where a combination of steeper mid-level
   lapse rates/greater boundary-layer heating, coupled with
   stronger/slightly more backed low-level flow should aid in
   strengthening of a QLCS this afternoon. Embedded supercell
   structures are expected, yielding a threat for a few tornadoes, with
   a strong one possible. 

   Farther northeast, weaker instability and more line-parallel
   deep-layer flow may support less coverage/amplitude of severe
   initially. But pre-outflow confluence bands across central to
   northeast MS may aid in supercell formation deeper into the
   afternoon over the TN Valley as the large-scale outflow approaches.

   ..Grams/Gleason.. 03/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...
   HGX...

   LAT...LON   29979640 30859607 31759395 33589136 35138990 35828889
               36338752 36228691 35858674 34248794 32678951 31199210
               29819358 28999654 29979640 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN