Mesoscale Discussion 0208 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 Areas affected...Southwest MO into western AR Concerning...Tornado Watch 40... Valid 110720Z - 110845Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 40 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging wind and perhaps a tornado will spread eastward overnight. DISCUSSION...The most vigorous part of a loosely organized QLCS is moving across parts of northwest AR early this morning, with recent observed gusts of 35-45 kt and occasional embedded rotation noted within the line. Farther south, small discrete cells across west-central AR continue to show occasional rotation as well. Low-level flow remains quite strong across the region per recent VWPs, supporting large effective SRH (near/above 250 m2/s2) despite relatively unidirectional wind profiles. Given the strong flow and MLCAPE generally in the 1000-1500 J/kg range, the environment remains conditionally favorable for all severe hazards. However, with generally subtle large-scale ascent and some residual low-level stability and capping, the longevity of the severe threat with the ongoing convection remains uncertain. The northern extent of the severe threat across south-central MO will eventually be constrained by southeastward-moving outflow, but the environment will remain conditionally favorable for areas south and east of this outflow, and across AR in advance of the ongoing convection. If organized storm structures can be maintained, then some threat for damaging wind and a tornado will spread east-northeastward overnight, and local expansions of WW 40 may be needed depending on convective trends. ..Dean/Mosier.. 03/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... LAT...LON 34379383 35679377 36549334 37559267 37629242 37689175 37329170 36779176 35979181 35029197 34399211 33949250 33919386 34379383 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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