Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 204

   Mesoscale Discussion 0204
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1121 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

   Areas affected...northeast Texas/Southeast Oklahoma into central
   Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 38...

   Valid 110421Z - 110545Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 38
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds
   or localized hail remain possible within the watch area. A more
   localized tornado risk also remains possible over far northeast
   Texas and toward the Red River.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered storms extend from southeast OK into central
   TX and toward Del Rio, with the most organized threat area over
   northeast TX/southeast OK. Here, effective SRH ahead of the
   prominent line of storms remains favorable for low-level rotation,
   and instability is strongest. Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
   tornado remains possible. The SHV VWP shows a favorable hodograph
   for rotating storms with 0-1 SRH over 250 m2/s2.

   To the southeast, outflow has pushed south of the Metroplex with
   weaker showers ongoing, however, another zone of strong storms is
   pushing into central TX, and extends southwest toward Del Rio.

   Deep-layer shear is oriented parallel to the central TX outflow, and
   convective inhibition is increasing which limits eastward extent of
   severe potential. However, persistent precipitation along the
   boundary and deepening cold pools could allow strong storms with
   hail or wind potential to extend a few more counties east of the
   existing line.

   ..Jewell.. 03/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29280119 29640061 30819922 31569866 31909810 31989725
               32569635 33239605 33829598 33869537 33319502 32689507
               32099590 30879748 29519914 28910013 28570078 28560129
               29280119 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN