Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 202

   Mesoscale Discussion 0202
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0954 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

   Areas affected...much of eastern Oklahoma into southwest Missouri
   and far western Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 110254Z - 110530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A risk of damaging winds and tornadoes may develop into
   eastern Oklahoma, southwest Missouri and far western Arkansas this
   evening and overnight. A new watch will likely be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Several corridors of strong to severe storms are
   ongoing from southeast KS into southern OK and North TX. Much of
   this activity has become linear/MCS, though embedded cells are noted
   at times. The environment remains favorable for a continued severe
   risk across the remainder of eastern OK into adjacent states, with
   40-50 kt effective shear and a moist and unstable air mass. Further,
   low-level shear and SRH has increased markedly over the last few
   hours. For instance, the SGF VWP indicates over 500 m2/s2 0-1 SRH,
   with nearly 400 m2/s2 at INX which is conditionally favorable for
   strong tornadoes.

   Conditionally, if discrete cells can develop ahead of the
   approaching lines of storms, conditions would clearly favor
   tornadoes. If the storm mode remains largely linear, corridors of
   damaging winds and embedded mesocyclones may still yield a tornado.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 03/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35309659 37339614 37879571 38079488 38069434 37819358
               37229334 36559337 34339433 33829481 33799549 33979649
               34659672 35309659 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN