Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 201

   Mesoscale Discussion 0201
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0857 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

   Areas affected...North Texas into south-central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 33...38...

   Valid 110157Z - 110400Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm
   Watches 33, 38 continues.

   SUMMARY...A corridor of damaging wind potential is evident over
   North Texas from the Metroplex into south-central Oklahoma. A
   tornado cannot be ruled out where cells are discrete.

   DISCUSSION...A squall line has become more organized this evening,
   with a prominent leading bow now moving across Wise and Parker
   counties in TX. Just ahead of this line, small convective elements
   are noted confirming increasing mesoscale lift and the unstable and
   uncapped air mass.

   The 00Z sounding at FWD shows robust instability with 2850 J/kg
   MLCAPE, and a long hodograph. Low-level shear has increased per VWPs
   this evening, aiding rightward storm propagation in the moist
   low-level environment. 

   In addition tot the bow, other cells developing to the north will be
   monitored for further organization, including tornado potential as
   this area remains very moist and unstable with increasing low-level
   shear.

   ..Jewell.. 03/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33599785 33889751 34359726 34649715 34929691 34959651
               34829603 34459570 33919561 33379575 33339581 33079599
               32699651 32549701 32549798 33009777 33279781 33599785 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN