Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 199

   Mesoscale Discussion 0199
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0822 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

   Areas affected...portions of central and northeastern Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 36...

   Valid 110122Z - 110245Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 36 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe storms including supercells continue across Tornado
   Watch 36. All hazards remain possible, including the threat for
   strong tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...As of 0115 UTC, regional radar imagery showed the
   initial cluster of thunderstorms that first formed over eastern KS
   and western MO had downscaled into a couple of stronger supercells
   across north-central MO. The environment remains broadly favorable
   for severe weather with moderate buoyancy and strong deep-layer
   shear. the KEAX VAD has shown an increase in low-level shear over
   the last hour or so coincident with the development of more
   semi-discrete supercellular structures. RAP soundings suggest
   continued strengthening of the low-level shear profile conducive for
   strong low-level mesocyclones tonight. This would support a risk for
   tornadoes (some strong) along with large hail and damaging gusts.

   Additional storms over central KS will continue to move
   northeastward into the western portions of the watch between 02-03z.
   These storms have shown more linear organization. However, strong
   low-level shear remains in place and could support embedded rotating
   storms capable of all hazards.

   ..Lyons.. 03/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   39269449 40649233 40739149 40169129 39669154 38809276
               38379375 37159630 38119630 39269449 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN