Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 192

   Mesoscale Discussion 0192
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0541 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

   Areas affected...portions of eastern kansas into north/northwestern
   Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 102241Z - 110045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Supercells and line segments capable of all severe hazards
   are becoming increasingly likely over portions of northern MO this
   afternoon/evening. A New Tornado Watch is likely needed.

   DISCUSSION...Afternoon visible imagery and surface obs show strong
   heating occurring along and southeast of a modified frontal zone
   stretching from northeast KS into northern MO and southeastern IA.
   Low-level convergence has increased over the last two hours as a
   weak surface cyclone has deepend along the inflection of the front.
   With large-scale ascent increasing from the west amid moderate to
   strong destabilization and strong deep-layer shear, severe storms
   development appears likely.

   Initial development is likely to cross the front and become
   elevated. However, this will maintain a risk for large to very large
   hail and some damaging gusts across far northern MO into southern
   IA. Additional surface-based storms are likely to follow in the warm
   sector with a mixed mode of supercells and line segments given
   slightly veered surface winds, but elongated hodographs. Large to
   very large hail, damaging gusts and tornadoes (some strong) are
   possible.

   There remains some uncertainty on when more robust convective
   initiation will occur. Initial towers along the front have shown
   signs of deepening, and recent CAM guidance suggests development is
   probable in the next 1-2 hours. Additional storms developing across
   central KS may also move into portions of MO after 00z with a
   continued risk for all hazards. Given this, a new Tornado Watch is
   likely needed, though exactly when remains unclear.

   ..Lyons.. 03/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   40619086 40549053 40129037 39409030 38899042 38669120
               37519481 37659520 37949539 38499539 39539474 40049432
               40519360 40769290 40739205 40699148 40619086 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN