Mesoscale Discussion 0182 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0605 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Areas affected...portions of northern Mississippi and Alabama into northwestern Georgia. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 29...30... Valid 092305Z - 100030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 29, 30 continues. SUMMARY...A loosely organized convective complex may gradually consolidate as it tracks eastward over the next few hours with a continued severe risk. A few stronger embedded cells will likely pose the main threat in the short term. DISCUSSION...As of 2300 UTC, regional mesoanalysis showed a broad cluster of thunderstorms ongoing from northern MS into AL. So far the cluster has remained loosely organized, but with subtle intensification trend noted with numerous storms ongoing within a broad corridor of low-level warm air advection ahead of a subtle shortwave trough. A few stronger embedded supercells have also emerged early this evening across northern MS and AL within moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg) and favorable deep-layer shear for organized storms including supercells or organized multi cells. In the short term, the severe potential appears highest with these storms in the form of damaging gusts, hail and possibly a brief tornado. With time, the cluster may consolidate into a more organized cluster/bowing segment with severe potential expected to continue eastward across AL into northern GA, possibly associated with a weak developing MCV within the broader thunderstorm cluster. In addition to the recent mesoanalysis trends, recent CAM guidance also shows the potential for upscale growth of the complex into a loosely organized MCS or bowing cluster across northeastern AL into Northwestern GA later this evening. While buoyancy will decrease with eastward extent, dry low and mid-levels could support stronger downdrafts with damaging gusts should a more organized bowing system develop. Given this, the severe weather threat appears likely to continue over much of WW29 and WW30 this evening. WW30 may be locally extended in area over western GA to account for the continued risk of damaging winds later this evening. ..Lyons/Hart.. 03/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 34658755 34988668 34888528 34638462 34418421 34008404 33028424 32768466 32678569 32898730 33078852 33478955 33568972 33948969 34118948 34318934 34518869 34578808 34658755 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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