Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 164

   Mesoscale Discussion 0164
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0624 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of western/central AR into extreme northeast
   TX

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 22...

   Valid 071224Z - 071400Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 22 continues.

   SUMMARY...The tornado and localized damaging wind threat may
   continue through dawn.

   DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell has recently produced an
   apparent tornado in southwest AR (Nevada County). While some
   weakening and veering of low-level flow has been noted in the KSHV
   and KLZK VWPs, low-level shear/SRH remains more than sufficient for
   tornado potential with any sustained supercell, given the presence
   of moderate buoyancy and a seasonably warm/moist boundary layer.
   Aside from the tornadic supercell, other storms across southwest AR
   have been relatively disorganized, though it remains possible that
   an additional tornadic supercell may evolve out of convection within
   the prefrontal warm-advection regime.   

   Farther northwest, a cold front is surging southeastward across
   west-central/northwest AR. As this front impinges upon the favorable
   downstream environment and ongoing warm-sector convection, at least
   a brief uptick in damaging-wind and brief tornado potential will be
   possible across parts of central/northern AR, before the threat ends
   from northwest to southeast later this morning. 

   Some severe threat is expected to persist beyond the 14Z expiration
   time of WW 22. Local watch extension and/or downstream watch
   issuance is possible, depending on short-term trends regarding
   convective intensity and organization as storms approach
   central/eastern AR.

   ..Dean/Gleason.. 03/07/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   36289244 36279158 36249148 36139068 35519045 34289114
               33549171 33269202 33159270 33129321 33159359 33309400
               33649471 36289244 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN