Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 158

   Mesoscale Discussion 0158
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0943 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

   Areas affected...Northeast Kansas into northern Missouri and eastern
   Iowa

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 16...19...

   Valid 070343Z - 070545Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 16, 19 continues.

   SUMMARY...Some threat for severe hail, wind, and perhaps a tornado,
   persists across portions of WW 16 and WW 19 from northeast Kansas
   into northern Missouri and portions of eastern Iowa.

   DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery depicts most of the
   ongoing convection across northeast KS and into western IA being
   undercut by a strong cold front. Despite this, GOES IR imagery has
   shown a few stronger updrafts developing over the past 30 minutes
   along the post-frontal convective line, and cooling cloud-top
   temperatures are noted with pre-frontal convection across
   central/eastern IA as well. While much of this activity is elevated
   in nature, it remains in a conditionally favorable environment for
   severe convection with MUCAPE remaining near 1500 J/kg and effective
   bulk shear near 50 knots. This will continue to support some
   potential for organized deep convection capable of producing
   sporadic large hail and perhaps damaging winds. Latest guidance
   hints that ongoing warm advection ahead of the front may support
   additional thunderstorms in the coming hours - particularly from
   northern MO into southern IA. If such convection emerges, the
   favorably sheared environment may support some tornado threat,
   though this potential is uncertain given no signs of imminent
   surface-based development within the pre-frontal regime.

   ..Moore.. 03/07/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   39429616 39929557 42549320 42649240 42639178 42419142
               42059134 41649150 40979201 40389280 39719375 39109498
               38939563 38949589 38969613 39169630 39429616 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN