Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 155

   Mesoscale Discussion 0155
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0712 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

   Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska into western Iowa

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 16...

   Valid 070112Z - 070315Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 16 continues.

   SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms to the north of a cold front will
   continue to pose a large to very large hail threat for the next
   several hours.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms developing to the north of a
   surging cold front have produced hail stones ranging from 1 to 2
   inches over the past hour. Although radar presentation of these
   cells has been somewhat meager, the 00z OAX sounding sampled 1250
   J/kg MUCAPE above the frontal surface and an elongated hodograph
   characterized by effective bulk shear on the order of 50 knots. This
   environment is very favorable for splitting supercells capable of
   producing large/very large hail. Per latest RAP mesoanalysis
   estimates, this environment extends eastward into western IA, and
   additional cells are noted developing within the post-frontal regime
   across eastern NE/western IA. These trends suggest that the threat
   for large hail is likely increasing, though it remains somewhat
   unclear how long storm mode will remain discrete/semi-discrete
   downstream. Regardless, additionally watch issuance may be needed in
   the coming hours to address this threat if the developing cells
   remain highly efficient at hail production.

   ..Moore.. 03/07/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   39919673 39909722 40159761 40669771 42049748 42329722
               42469693 43269450 43189395 42979361 42679350 42289374
               41969408 40889529 40059641 39919673 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN