Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 152

   Mesoscale Discussion 0152
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0523 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

   Areas affected...Northeast Kansas into central Iowa

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 16...

   Valid 062323Z - 070130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 16 continues.

   SUMMARY...Convective coverage is expected to gradually increase over
   the next couple of hours with early stages of additional
   thunderstorm development noted along a surging cold front.
   Consequently, the overall severe threat will likely increase heading
   into the early evening hours.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development along the front has so far
   been lackluster - likely owing to a combination of undercutting from
   the cold front and residual capping across the warm sector. However,
   latest GOES one-minute imagery shows a cluster of deepening cumulus
   across far southeast NE/southwest IA just ahead of the front, and
   cooling cloud-top temperatures with an uptick in lighting counts is
   noted across northeast KS. These signs suggest that the severe
   threat remains in place across WW 16 and an uptick in strong/severe
   thunderstorm coverage is possible in the coming hours. Strong
   along-boundary flow coupled with the surging nature of the front
   casts considerable uncertainty on whether storms will remain rooted
   along the boundary or will be undercut quickly to the cool side of
   the boundary. Regardless, severe hail may be possible within
   initially semi-discrete storms before a transition to primarily a
   severe wind and tornado threat occurs - especially if storms can
   remain rooted on the warm side of the boundary. This appears most
   probable across southwest to central IA downstream of the ongoing
   cumulus development and where recent CAM output has suggested
   pre-frontal cells will be possible within a buoyant and strongly
   sheared environment.

   ..Moore.. 03/06/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38509704 38379742 38389777 38539804 38639812 38739813
               39509724 40579589 40969552 41249527 41459517 41709498
               41889480 42059438 42099397 42059354 41929324 41649305
               41289299 40909325 40309407 39689501 39169601 38509704 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN