Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 144

   Mesoscale Discussion 0144
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1055 PM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

   Areas affected...South Central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 14...

   Valid 060455Z - 060630Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 14
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe threat will increase across the southeastern half
   of ww014 over the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Long-lived supercell that developed over western OK
   earlier this evening has advanced into Grant county OK, and will
   soon cross the border into Sumner county KS. This supercell has a
   history of producing tornadoes. Latest surface data suggests the air
   mass just downstream of this storm is a bit cooler than across
   northern OK, but slow moistening is occurring across southern KS as
   the warm front gradually lifts north. VWP data at VNX and ICT
   exhibit very strong 0-3km SRH so this supercell should continue to
   track northeast, but some weakening is expected due to the
   aforementioned cooler boundary layer. Given the strength of the LLJ,
   a few thunderstorm clusters are expected to evolve across south
   central KS into the early morning hours. While some tornado risk
   exists with this storm as it tracks northeast, current thinking is
   hail/wind will become the primary concerns as updrafts should
   gradually decouple and become more elevated in nature.

   ..Darrow.. 03/06/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37949794 37949612 36999650 37019832 37949794 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN