Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 141

   Mesoscale Discussion 0141
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0735 PM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

   Areas affected...portions of northern Oklahoma into central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 060135Z - 060300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may pose a risk for large hail, and perhaps
   an isolated tornado, over the next 1-2 hours. Local watch extensions
   and potentially a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed across portions
   of northern Oklahoma into central Kansas over the past hour,
   including a stronger storm within the northern portions of WW0013.
   Some uncertainty remains regarding the persistence of these storms
   as they progress northeastward given rather weak synoptic-scale
   forcing. Should storms become better established along and north of
   a surface frontal boundary, however, they will pose a risk for large
   hail given MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of
   30-40 kts amidst steep mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km. As the
   surface warm front lifts farther north, increasing low-level
   moisture (dewpoints approaching 60 F along the KS/OK border) coupled
   with a strengthening low-level jet sampled by regional VWPs may
   support the potential for an isolated tornado with any surface-based
   storms along and south of the surface boundary. Trends will continue
   to be monitored, and local watch extensions or perhaps a new Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch may be needed.

   ..Chalmers/Moore/Hart.. 03/06/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37499892 37979855 38469816 38949762 39319708 39409634
               39159605 38579600 38079610 37699635 37179680 36629724
               36229766 35929809 35769859 35769905 35999929 36649934
               36929925 37099916 37259910 37499892 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN