Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 137

   Mesoscale Discussion 0137
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1051 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of the Ozarks into the Lower Ohio Valley

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 11...12...

   Valid 050451Z - 050645Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 11, 12
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may continue into the early
   morning hours.

   DISCUSSION...Widespread convection is ongoing late this evening from
   near the OK/AR border into parts of the Lower Ohio Valley, in
   advance of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across the
   Lower Missouri Valley. A strengthening low-level jet (observed on
   recent VWPs from KLZK and KNQA) will sustain convection into the
   overnight hours from northern AR/southern MO into parts of southern
   IL/IN and western KY. Much of this convection will remain north of
   an outflow-reinforced cold front, where modest elevated buoyancy and
   sufficient effective shear will continue to support an isolated hail
   threat. Convection near/south of the front (such as the supercell in
   far southeast OK and the cluster of storms in far southern IL) may
   remain near-surface based into the early morning, and pose a threat
   of isolated hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a brief tornado
   (given the favorable low-level SRH). 

   Some loosely organized upscale growth remains possible with time,
   though ongoing trends and most short-term guidance suggest that the
   severe threat will tend to remain isolated into the early morning.
   WW 11 and WW 12 are scheduled to expire at 05Z, and new watch
   issuance appears unlikely, unless an uptick in storm organization
   and intensity is observed.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 03/05/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...
   TSA...

   LAT...LON   36319365 36719280 37089145 37548954 37938803 38218656
               37168632 35769080 35289156 34639272 34269382 34289459
               34849447 36319365 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN