Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 118

   Mesoscale Discussion 0118
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0107 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

   Areas affected...parts of southwestern Nebraska and adjacent
   northeastern Colorado/southeastern Wyoming

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 251907Z - 252130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong surface gusts in excess of 50 kt may
   accompany otherwise weak thunderstorm activity overspreading the
   region through 1-4 PM MST.

   DISCUSSION...Near the southern periphery of a low-amplitude digging
   short wave perturbation, lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates are in
   the process of becoming quite steep near the Cheyenne Ridge
   vicinity.  This is occurring in response to continuing insolation
   and deep boundary-layer mixing, beneath strong west-northwesterly
   flow which may include speeds increasing to 50+ kt as low as 700 mb
   during the next couple of hours.

   Despite boundary-layer moisture characterized by surface dew points
   around 30F, forecast soundings suggest the development of up to a
   few hundred J/kg of CAPE, which may maintain and perhaps support at
   least some further intensification of ongoing upstream convective
   development.   Some lightning is possible, but, more notably, this
   low-topped convection probably will enhance the downward transfer of
   the stronger momentum to the surface, before activity develops into
   a more stable environment deeper into the the Great Plains.

   ..Kerr/Smith.. 02/25/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41680410 41740279 41540154 40729960 40240029 40590235
               41210409 41680410 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH