Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 83

   Mesoscale Discussion 0083
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0304 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

   Areas affected...Far southeast Mississippi into southern Alabama and
   the far western Florida Peninsula

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 7...

   Valid 150904Z - 151100Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 7 continues.

   SUMMARY...A weakening trend has been noted with the QLCS exiting the
   lower Mississippi River Valley over the past two hours. While a lull
   in convective intensity is anticipated over the coming hours, the
   downstream environment could still support damaging to severe wind
   gusts in the near term.

   DISCUSSION...Diminishing lightning counts, warming cloud-top
   temperatures, and decreasing VIL values have all been observed over
   the past two hours with the QLCS traversing southeast LA and
   southern MS. The viable warm sector capable of support intense
   convection continues to become spatially confined closer to the
   coast where low to mid-60s dewpoints remain in place. Veering
   surface winds ahead of the line suggest low-level convergence is
   diminishing and is likely also contributing to the weakening trend
   in conjunction with limited buoyancy. However, the KMOB VWP
   continues to sample approximately 25 knots of 0-3 km BWD and around
   40 knots of 0-6 km BWD ahead of the line. This, coupled with
   residual buoyancy along the coast, may continue to support sporadic
   damaging/severe winds across the remainder of WW 7. Recent HRRR
   solutions seem to support this idea and hint at more intense cells
   over the Gulf waters moving onshore through around 11 UTC that may
   pose a localized severe wind risk.

   ..Moore.. 02/15/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30508904 30768880 31198875 31318862 31358665 31318640
               31208626 30648626 30458636 30388674 30298718 30238782
               30258828 30248884 30248904 30508904 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH