Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Oct 28 2025
330 WTPZ43 KNHC 290241 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025 800 PM PDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Sonia appears to have finally succumbed to the strong southerly shear analyzed by UW-CIMSS to be near 26 kt, while moving over cooler waters below 26C and into a drier mid-level environment with humidity values below 50 percent. Deep convection was sheared away from the center around or shortly after 1800 UTC and has not returned, indicating that Sonia’s time as a tropical cyclone is nearly over. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 2.5/35 kt and 2.0/30 kt, respectively, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 28 to 39 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity for this advisory is held at, perhaps a generous, 35 kt. Sonia is now moving westward, or 280 degrees at 8 kt. This general motion is expected to continue through dissipation. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and represents a blend of the HCCA, GDMI, and FSSE track aids. Strong southerly shear is expected to persist during the next day or so while Sonia remains over cool waters of 25–26C and within dry mid-level air below 50 percent. As a result, gradual weakening is anticipated, and Sonia is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later tonight and dissipate by Thursday. The intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and remains closely aligned with the various intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 15.4N 125.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 15.4N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/0000Z 15.2N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1200Z 14.8N 131.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)
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