Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2177

   Mesoscale Discussion 2177
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0316 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of southeast Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631...

   Valid 250816Z - 251015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and a brief/embedded tornado or two
   remain possible in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631 -- especially in a
   west-east corridor extending from parts of Harris County to
   Jefferson County through around 11Z.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KHGX and especially TIAH
   show several embedded/transient mesovortex structures within the
   convective line moving across southeast TX. As the line continues
   eastward, the combination of lower 70s dewpoints and enhanced
   low-level hodograph curvature (around 200 m2/s2 0-1km SRH per VWP
   data) will continue to support these transient/enhanced embedded
   circulations -- posing a risk of damaging gusts and possibly a brief
   tornado or two. The most favorable corridor appears to extend from
   parts of Harris County eastward to Jefferson County through around
   11Z.

   ..Weinman.. 10/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

   LAT...LON   29629427 29659553 29859576 30289566 30349526 30139408
               29859398 29629427 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH