Issued at 200 AM MST Sat Oct 11 2025
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 110835 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025 200 AM MST Sat Oct 11 2025 The satellite presentation of Raymond has deteriorated since the previous advisory, with the cyclone continuing to be affected by moderate easterly shear, analyzed to be around 18 kt by UW-CIMSS. A recent scatterometer pass was helpful in identifying the center position and indicated a peak wind vector of 35 kt. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 3.0/45 kt and 2.0/30 kt, respectively, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged from 32 to 39 kt. Considering these data and accounting for potential undersampling in the scatterometer winds, the initial intensity is maintained at 40 kt for this advisory. Raymond continues to move quickly northwestward, or 310 degrees at 14 kt. A turn toward the north is expected later today as the cyclone moves between a longwave trough over the southwestern United States and a mid- to upper-level ridge over northern Mexico. This general motion is forecast to continue through the weekend, with Raymond dissipating over the higher terrain of northern Mexico by late Sunday. The new NHC track forecast has been nudged slightly westward during the next 12 hours to account for a delayed northward turn, and it remains very close to the previous prediction thereafter. Raymond will continue to be influenced by moderate east to northeast shear and a dry mid-level environment, while also interacting with land, including mountainous terrain, during the next couple of days. These factors should result in gradual weakening. The NHC intensity forecast calls for Raymond to weaken into a tropical depression later today or tonight, and dissipate by late Sunday. Regardless of how long Raymond survives, heavy rainfall is expected to spread into portions of Mexico and the southwestern United States this weekend through early next week. See the Key Messages below for more details. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Las Islas Marias for the next few hours, and in Baja California Sur beginning later this morning. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact coastal sections of southwestern and northwestern Mexico through Sunday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. Moisture from Raymond will bring the threat of additional heavy rains to portions of the Southwest U.S. Sunday into early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 20.9N 109.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 22.6N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 25.4N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 28.2N 110.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)
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