Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 03 2025
620 WTPZ45 KNHC 040233 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 03 2025 Octave still has the appearance of a sheared tropical cyclone. Infrared geostationary satellite imagery shows that cloud top temperatures have generally warmed over the past few hours. Similar to the previous night, isolated bursts of convection are currently forming within the western portion of the circulation. This can also be seen on an AMSR2 microwave pass from earlier this afternoon that had a fragmented curved band wrapping around the southern and western sides of Octave. The initial intensity is held at 50 kt, representing a blend of the subjective and objective Dvorak estimates that range between 39 to 55 kt. The tropical storm is still moving west-northwestward at 7 kt. Octave is expected to turn more to the northwest soon, followed by a northward motion on Sunday with a decreased forward speed as the mid-level ridge to the east weakens. By early next week, the cyclone should begin to move eastward, but the track guidance envelope is quite large by the middle-to-latter portions of the forecast period. This is because models differ on how much Octave will interact with a trough over the western United States and how quickly a developing disturbance (Invest 99-E) will organize. The only changes to the latest NHC track forecast are that it lies slightly south and west of the previous forecast in the first 36 h, due the delayed turn to the northwest. Vertical wind shear is gradually relaxing over the cyclone which could lead to some slight strengthening in about a day. Most of the reliable models are no longer showing Octave becoming a hurricane. By 48 h, the vertical wind shear is expected to increase and gradually weaken the cyclone as it moves eastward towards the much larger system to its east. Only minor adjustments have been made to the official intensity forecast, which lies in the middle of the guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 13.8N 122.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 14.2N 123.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 14.8N 124.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 15.3N 124.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 15.5N 123.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 15.7N 123.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 15.5N 121.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 15.0N 120.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 14.8N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci
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