000 WTPA44 PHFO 070853 TCDCP4 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 29 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Sat Sep 06 2025 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Kiko this evening measured a minimum central pressure of 960 mb and maximum flight-level winds of 113 kt. Although the hurricane maintains a symmetric annular structure with a well-defined eye, the surrounding ring of cold cloud tops has warmed over the past few hours. HFO Dvorak subjective intensity estimates reflected this weakening trend with a T5.5/102 kt, while SAB had a T5.0/90 kt. Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 107 to 115 kt. Based on a blend of these data and satellite trends, and considering the fluctuating intensity that Kiko has exhibited during the past couple of days, the initial intensity is set at 110 kt, making Kiko a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 300 degrees at 11 kt. The cyclone remains steered by the southwestern flank of a mid-level ridge, while a mid- to upper-level low north of Hawaii is eroding the ridge’s western extent. This pattern should maintain a west-northwestward to northwestward track through the rest of the weekend. By early to mid next week (days 3 to 5), as Kiko weakens and becomes more vertically shallow, the cyclone will be steered more by the low-level flow, which should induce a gradual turn toward the west while keeping the center north of the main Hawaiian Islands. The latest forecast track is nearly identical to the previous NHC forecast and remains close to the consensus aids. Kiko has weakened to a Category 3 hurricane this evening, and additional gradual weakening is expected overnight and into Sunday as the cyclone remains over cooler waters. It will likely fall below major hurricane strength by Sunday night. However, its annular structure introduces some uncertainty regarding the exact rate of decay over the next 12–24 hours. By Monday, increasing mid-level dry air and strengthening west-southwesterly shear should lead to a more pronounced weakening trend. By days 3 to 5, Kiko is forecast to become a much weaker, shallow, and sheared system as it passes north of the Hawaiian Islands. The official forecast remains slightly above most of the short-term guidance, before trending closer to the consensus aids later in the period. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Kiko again around 07/1800 UTC Sunday, which will provide updated information on its intensity and structure. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to middle portion of next week. While the forecast track currently calls for Kiko to pass north of the islands, it is still too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of potential impacts from the cyclone's winds or rains. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. 2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 17.1N 143.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 17.8N 144.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 18.9N 146.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 20.2N 149.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 21.5N 151.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 22.7N 153.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 23.6N 155.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 25.1N 160.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 26.0N 164.4W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
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