805 WTPA44 PHFO 070245 TCDCP4 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 28 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Sat Sep 06 2025 Kiko's satellite presentation became more impressive during the afternoon hours, with a well-defined eye surrounded by a large, symmetric ring of very cold cloud tops. This annular structure has allowed the hurricane to re-strengthen despite surrounding dry air and marginal sea surface temperatures as it gradually gains latitude. Subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates have increased, with HFO at 6.5/127 kt and SAB at 6.0/115 kt. Objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are also climbing back to as high as 115 kt. Based on a blend of these data and the satellite appearance, the initial intensity is set at 120 kt, making Kiko a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale once again. The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 295 degrees at 10 kt. The cyclone remains steered by the southwestern flank of a mid-level ridge, while a mid- to upper-level low north of Hawaii is eroding the ridge’s western extent. This pattern should maintain a west-northwestward to northwestward track through the weekend. By early to mid next week (days 3 to 5), as Kiko weakens and becomes more vertically shallow, the cyclone will be steered more by the low-level flow, which should induce a gradual turn toward the west while keeping the center north of the main Hawaiian Islands. The latest forecast track lies just to the right of the previous NHC forecast and represents a blend between that solution and the consensus aids. Kiko may hold Category 4 strength into the evening, but gradual weakening is expected to begin overnight, with it likely falling below major hurricane status by Sunday night. However, its annular structure introduces some uncertainty regarding the exact rate of weakening over the next 12–24 hours. Beyond Monday, the combined effects of increasing mid-level dry air and strengthening west-southwesterly shear should accelerate the weakening process. By days 3 to 5, Kiko is forecast to be a much weaker, shallow, and sheared system as it passes north of the Hawaiian Islands. The official forecast remains above most of the short-term guidance, then trends closer to the consensus aids later in the period. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Kiko later this evening and will provide a better look at Kiko's intensity and structure. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to middle portion of next week. While the forecast track currently calls for Kiko to pass north of the islands, it is still too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of potential impacts from the cyclone's winds or rains. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. 2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 16.5N 142.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 17.2N 143.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 18.2N 145.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 19.5N 148.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 20.8N 150.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 22.1N 152.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 23.2N 154.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 24.8N 159.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 25.8N 163.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
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