918 WTPA44 PHFO 062035 TCDCP4 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 27 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 06 2025 Kiko continues to maintain a well-defined eye, but the eyewall convective tops continue to slowly warm. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased since the last advisory and are currently in the 90-115 kt range. Based on a blend of the estimates, the initial intensity is decreased to 105 kt. Kiko has moved a little to the right during the past few hours, and the overall motion is now 295/10 kt. The hurricane is on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge, and a mid- to upper-level low seen in satellite imagery near and north of Hawaii is eroding the ridge's western end. This pattern should cause Kiko to move west-northwestward to perhaps northwestward for the next 72 h or so. After that time, a more westward track is expected as Kiko shears apart vertically and the weakening cyclone is steered more by the low-level easterly flow. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies along the south side of the various consensus models. While the current forecast track keeps the center of Kiko north of the Hawaiian Islands, there is still some spread in the guidance, and thus uncertainty, in forecasts at 3 days and beyond. During the next 2 days or so, Kiko should be passing over sea surface temperatures near 26C while it moves through a dry mid-level air mass. This combination should cause some weakening. After that, while the sea surface temperatures get warmer along the forecast track, strong vertical shear produced by the upper-level low should cause continued weakening, with Kiko expected to shear apart vertically by 72-96 hr. The new intensity forecast shows notably lower intensities than the previous forecast based on the current intensity and the intensity consensus forecast. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Kiko later today to provide a better look at Kiko's intensity and structure. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to middle portion of next week. While the forecast track currently calls for Kiko to pass north of the islands, it is still too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of potential impacts from the cyclone's winds or rains. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. 2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 16.1N 141.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 16.8N 142.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 17.7N 144.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 18.8N 146.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 20.1N 149.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 21.4N 151.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 22.5N 153.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 24.4N 158.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 25.5N 162.9W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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