402 WTPZ42 KNHC 030239 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 500 PM HST Sat Aug 02 2025 Gil is now over waters of about 24 degrees Celsius, and its deep convection is gradually losing organization and areal coverage. Based on Dvorak estimates of T3.0/4.0 from TAFB and T3.5/3.5 from SAB, the intensity is lowered to 55 kt. Sea surface temperatures ahead of Gil will be getting colder by another degree or two, and the storm will be running into a region of moderate to strong southwesterly shear in 24-48 hours. Gil is likely to lose organized convection, and thus become post-tropical, in about 24 hours, with continued weakening thereafter. The storm continues to move quickly west-northwestward at 295/18 kt. The ridge north of Gil is forecast to weaken during the next couple of days, which should cause a gradual decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the west is forecast in about 48 hours as the remnant low is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is slightly south of the previous forecast, leaning toward the latest HCCA and AI guidance. Global models are in good agreement that the remnant low will open up into a trough by day 4 (Wednesday) northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 19.5N 132.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 20.3N 134.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 21.1N 137.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 04/1200Z 21.7N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0000Z 22.0N 142.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1200Z 22.2N 145.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z 22.6N 148.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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