Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1757

   Mesoscale Discussion 1757
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0727 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 230027Z - 230200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong winds may accompany storms. The strongest
   storms could show weak low-level rotation.

   DISCUSSION...An MCV in the mid-Missouri Valley has promoted widely
   scattered storms in parts of southern Iowa. These storms may persist
   into mid-evening. A very moist airmass at the surface is supporting
   2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear remains quite modest under the
   upper-level ridge, though the MCV has contributed to local value of
   20-30 kts. The main hazard with these storms will be locally
   damaging winds as storms develop and collapse. KDMX velocity data
   has indicated weak low-level rotation with a couple of the stronger
   storms. Area VAD data shows very weak low-level SRH even with the
   MCV influence. With the 850 mb jet expected to increase farther
   west, this SRH is not expected to improve this evening. At most, a
   brief tornado could occur, though this threat is conditional.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...

   LAT...LON   41209433 41429432 41829418 42079348 41819187 41349146
               40829167 40659204 40609231 40949283 41079390 41209433 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH